The Israeli-American operation that began to change Iran’s regime and end its nuclear program ended in a historic strategic defeat. Despite President Trump’s claims of Iran’s defeat, America is stuck in such a dilemma that it can neither carry forward the war without affecting the global economy nor can it withdraw from the war without angering the Israeli lobby. The resentment of this lobby can put Trump’s political career in trouble.
After 40 days of fierce fighting and two months of inconclusive negotiations, America was left with only two options, either to accept the deal that was highly beneficial to Iran or to continue the fight till the end. Whatever the outcome of this situation, it will completely change the geopolitics of West Asia and perhaps the entire world.
Israel is not happy with the MoU that is being agreed upon and many of its leaders have refused to accept it. Yet Trump officials are calling the opening of Hormuz and the clause of never making nuclear weapons a victory. Whereas all these things were part of the deal made during the Obama administration, which was ended by Trump in 2018.
If there is any agreement on MoU, will the dream of ‘Greater Israel’ be broken?
Experts say that Israel is unable to defeat Iran alone and it prefers a large-scale attack on Iranian infrastructure to weaken Tehran. Even if America’s Gulf allies have to be destroyed for this. However, following this path poses the risk of a global economic crisis and its prolongation may worsen it. Due to which many European countries including China, India, Russia appeared against this campaign.
Netanyahu shows map of Greater Israel (file photo)
If the ongoing Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) results in an agreement on Iran’s terms, it would be a strategic defeat for Israel, forcing it to accept a two-state solution with Palestine as the only path to long-term survival. Also, your dream of Greater Israel may have to be buried forever.
Last MoU or Last War
Even though the Trump administration is not disclosing this, the deal on this MoU has put it in trouble. Many experts say that this MoU is just taking time to prepare for war. If this is not the case, then after the agreement Iran will emerge as a major power in the Gulf. The Trump administration may also be accepting this fact that if the war is started again after the signing of the MoU, then it will be the last war and Iran will not come to the negotiating table again.
Trump’s strategic difficulty and internal pressure
Escalating the war risks inflaming the entire region and ruining Gulf allies, while backing down could anger the billionaires and lobbyists who fund the Trump administration. Trump’s claims of victory are being presented as desperate rhetoric, an attempt to hide the nervous system. Most of the billionaires lobbying for Trump are Zionists, for whom Israel’s security is paramount.
American-Israeli strategists have only two options for Israel’s security. Firstly, a ‘kill-to-kill’ war should be fought by risking a nuclear war, or else continued attacks on Iran’s civilian infrastructure should be carried out. So far, the second option is being given priority, even if it means sacrificing America’s Gulf allies in retaliation against Iran. Because the beginning of a nuclear war can lead to the complete destruction of Israel.
Pressure and economic maneuvers from the whole world
Iran’s retaliation could target regional oil, gas and water infrastructure, threatening to trigger a global economic crisis and wipe out trillions of dollars of Gulf investments in the US. Although this is devastating for Washington, Israel sees the weakening of rich Arab countries as a strategic advantage.
If the MoU results in an agreement on Iran’s terms, it would be a strategic defeat for Israel-US. After the removal of sanctions from Iran, its economy will become stronger, which is directly related to the increase in funds of the Axis of Resistance (Hezbollah, Houthi, Hamas etc.). A strong Iran and a strong Axis of Resistance will never allow Israel’s dream of capturing the West Bank and Gaza to be fulfilled.
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