A surprising incident has come to light regarding Russian President Vladimir Putin. A person has bet about 4.09 lakh dollars (about Rs 3.8 crore) on the prediction market platform Polymarket that Putin will not remain in power till the end of December 2026. If this estimate proves correct then he can get around 25 lakh dollars i.e. Rs 23,80,00,000. This bet has been made at a time when many reports are coming out regarding Putin’s popularity and Russia’s situation amid the Ukraine war.
Bet of 4.09 lakh dollars, but the probability of winning is only 12 percent
According to the report, a trader on Polymarket by the name of Znotluvuisemage has placed a bet of 4.09 lakh dollars i.e. approximately Rs 3.89 crore that Vladimir Putin will not remain the President of Russia by the end of December 2026. There is a flag of Ukraine in the profile photo of this trader. On Polymarket this probability is currently considered to be only 12 percent. Despite this, if this estimate proves correct then the trader can get a payment of around 25 lakh dollars. According to NBC’s report, the same trader has also bet different amounts of money on Ukraine’s recapture of Crimea and a peace agreement by the end of August.
What is Prediction Market and why is it in discussion?
Prediction markets like PolyMarket are platforms where people place money on the probability of future events. Users buy and sell stakes depending on whether an event occurs or not. In recent years, the use of such platforms has increased rapidly during wars and political events around the world. Although the report says that the possibility of Putin’s end to power in the near future is still considered very low, but the changing situation within Russia and political pressure during the Ukraine war have again brought such speculations into discussion.
Declining popularity in Russia and increasing pressure of war
According to the report, this week Russia’s government poll agency VTsIOM found that for the first time after the attack on Ukraine in 2022, Putin’s popularity has declined so rapidly. In one week, public trust in him decreased by 3.4 percentage points and approval rating by 3.5 percentage points. The report said that people’s resentment has increased due to reasons like inflation, long-range attacks by Ukraine, fuel crisis in many areas and internet shutdown. According to a study by the Institute for Conflict Studies and Analysis of Russia, 8 out of 10 people in Russia want the war to end soon. However, in other surveys this figure is said to be between 60 to 70 percent. Despite this, Putin is continuously claiming that the Russian army is maintaining the lead on the front and Ukraine’s attacks are having no impact on the war.
Also read: 47 leaders and officials arrested in Iraq, accused of corruption
Leave a Reply