Karnataka Chief Minister S Siddaramaiah resigned after almost 3 years in his second term as CM. Karnataka will now get a new CM, the new name has not been formally announced but from the pictures that have come, it is clear that DK Shivakumar will be the CM of Karnataka, the announcement is yet to be made. Before resigning, some such pictures came from Karnataka today, which gave indications of future politics. This picture was taken when S Siddaramaiah called all his ministers home for breakfast. In this he informed all the ministers about his resignation. In this breakfast meeting, DK Shivakumar touched Siddaramaiah’s feet and hugged him.
Pictures speak a lot in politics. DK Shivakumar touching Siddaramaiah’s feet is not just a mark of respect, but an attempt to convey the message that this change of power is with peace, harmony and consent and there is no division, no difference of opinion in the party. Siddaramaiah also has his consent in this and Shivkumar also has his blessings. In this, an attempt is also seen to woo Siddaramaiah’s supporters.
Siddaramaiah held a press conference after resigning at around 3 pm. In this he said that he had already said that he will resign whenever the high command asks. Yesterday the high command said and today I resigned. He told that the resignation has been submitted to the secretary of Governor Thawar Chand Gehlot. Gehlot is currently out of Bengaluru due to family reasons. Deputy CM DK Shivakumar was also present in the press conference.
‘The high command asked me to go to Rajya Sabha’
S Siddaramaiah said, I kept my promise and when the high command asked me to do so, I resigned (from the post of Chief Minister). I have full confidence that the Governor will accept my resignation as per the constitutional provisions because this has to be done as per the Constitution. The leaders of the high command asked me to go to Rajya Sabha. I have told my seniors that I will not go to Rajya Sabha. I have said that I will not do national politics. I will remain in state politics only.
However, if sources are to be believed, Siddaramaiah did not leave the post of CM very easily. On the insistence of Rahul Gandhi, he was ready to resign but he also put his conditions before General Secretary in-charge Randeep Surjewala. After this Surjewala said that after resigning, you come with me to Delhi and everything will be decided in front of Rahul Gandhi. In such a situation, after resigning, Siddaramaiah and Randeep will reach Delhi, where they will meet Rahul Gandhi.
According to sources, Siddha’s conditions are that ministers close to her should be retained and her better departments should not be tampered with. The political future of his MLC son should be taken care of. On this, the high command is already ready to make cabinet ministers by giving them good portfolios. If till now DK Shivkumar, who was the Deputy CM and State President, becomes the CM, then the post of President should be given to his supporter.
Offer of Rajya Sabha seat and big post at national level
Along with this, one condition is that if someone is made Deputy CM, then Siddaramaiah’s opinion should be given prominence. Apart from this, the high command has also offered him a Rajya Sabha seat and a big position in the organization at the national level. This will enable the party to use him as a big OBC face, especially in South India. However, initially Siddha is not very excited about coming to Delhi. He has made it clear that he will stay in Karnataka only.
Although BJP is saying that whatever Congress does, nothing is going to happen now, Congress has ruined Karnataka. Defeat is certain in 2028. BJP MP Manoj Tiwari said that everything happens for power in Congress. Rajiv Pratap Rudy said, it is difficult to say whether Congress will remain in the country in the coming times or not.
Let us tell you that there is Congress government in 3 states of South India, in which Karnataka is very important. The importance is more because there are assembly elections after 2 years from now, in such a situation Congress wants to strengthen the political mathematics in Karnataka from now on. Perhaps that is why Congress has decided to remove 78 year old Siddaramaiah and make DK Shivakumar the CM. Let us know why Congress chose DK Shivakumar as CM?
The change of power in Karnataka is not just a change of two faces, but it is a big social engineering bet of Congress. Karnataka’s 224 assembly seats are mainly decided by five big vote banks.
- Lingayats: 16% – 17%, they have dominance in North and Central Karnataka, they are mainly considered the vote bank of BJP.
- Vokkaliga: 14% – 15%, dominance in Old Mysore region, both JDS and Congress have influence on this vote bank.
- Muslims in the state: 12% – 13%, are considered decisive in coastal and urban areas, mainly Congress voters.
- People of Kuruba community are 7% – 8%. They are spread across the state, Siddaramaiah belongs to this community, their votes also lean towards Congress.
- Scheduled caste population is 17%. Scheduled Tribe population – 7%. Both of them are spread across the state, the vote bank is divided but Congress has a strong hold.
Siddaramaiah and his strong AHINDA vote bank
The biggest concern regarding the change of leadership in Karnataka Congress was regarding Siddaramaiah and his strong AHINDA vote bank. Siddaramaiah prepared a powerful equation of AHINDA i.e. minority, backward class and Dalit communities, it is believed that these classes together influence more than 40 percent of the votes.
Congress’s dilemma was also that if Siddaramaiah was suddenly removed, the Kurubas and backward classes might get angry. This was the reason why everything happened peacefully and Siddaramaiah himself announced his resignation. Now it will be easy for Congress to create a new balance of power by combining Siddaramaiah’s AHINDA equation and DK Shivakumar’s Vokkaliga influence.
There was an understanding within the party that AHINDA vote bank alone would not be enough to remain strong in Karnataka for a long time. DK Shivakumar was chosen as the Chief Minister only to strengthen his hold on Vokkaliga votes in South Karnataka. Let us tell you that AHINDA is a big socio-political equation of Karnataka politics. It means:
- A means minority
- HI means Hindulidav, this is a Kannada word, it means Hindu Backward Class.
- DA means Dalit
This is somewhat like PDA in the politics of North India, through which backward classes, Dalits and minorities are included.
Siddaramaiah’s ‘AHINDA’ equation!
- A – Minority
- HI- Hindulidav (Backward Class)
- DA-Dalit
Out of 224 assembly seats in the state, about 60 to 65 seats come from the Old Mysore region. In this area, the Vokkaliga community decides the direction of the election results. For the last three decades, the politics of this region has been influenced by former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda and his party JDS have been dominant. Congress believes that with DK Shivakumar becoming the Chief Minister, a large section of the Vokkaliga community can directly join the Congress.
The strategy of Congress is clear to weaken the traditional vote bank of JDS, so that the strongest link of BJP-JDS alliance can be broken. While BJP is holding on to Lingayat votes, JDS has been the pivot of Vokkaliga politics. In such a situation, Congress wants to strengthen its hold in South Karnataka by playing the role of Vokkaliga CM.
Overall, Congress has started a political preparation in Karnataka by taking two big social equations together, on one hand keeping the AHINDA vote bank together through Siddaramaiah and on the other hand weakening the hold of JDS in Vokkaliga politics in the face of DK Shivakumar.
Congress’s strategy with Shivkumar!
- Congress eyes 60+ seats of Old Mysore
- Vokkaliga votes decide power in South Karnataka
- Deve Gowda family dominated for 30 years
- Attempt to appease Vokkaliga by making DK the CM
- Congress’s strategy to break into JDS stronghold
- Plan to stop BJP-JDS alliance in South Karnataka
DK Shivkumar is close to the Gandhi family. It was because of his strategy that BJP suffered a major defeat in the 2023 elections. While being the President, he had made Congress very aggressive in Karnataka. He had a big contribution in the victory of Congress in 2023, despite this he had to be content with the post of Deputy CM and also had to wait for 3 years to become the CM.
DK Shivakumar is considered to be the best strategist, trouble-shooter and aggressive administrator of Congress. With his becoming CM, there will be a big change in the working style of the government. DK has always been a strong pillar of organization and resources for the Congress high command. By his becoming CM the organization will be strengthened and resources will increase. DK Shivakumar is a Vokkaliga, he can break the strong Vokkaliga alliance of BJP-JDS in the Vokkaliga dominated Old Mysore region.
The big challenge before DK Shivakumar will be to keep the Siddaramaiah camp satisfied and keep AHINDA and Kuruba vote bank with Congress, whose management he has shown in the assembly elections. Let us also tell you that there have been 7 Chief Ministers from different political parties from the Vokkaliga community who decided the direction of election results in Karnataka. If DK Shivakumar becomes the Chief Minister, he will be the 8th Chief Minister of the state to come from this community.
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