America and Iran are once again moving towards a big war. The reason for this is not that both the countries had misunderstood the earlier peace agreement (MoU). The real reason is that this agreement was based on the balance of power between the two countries at that time. America now wants to change this balance in its favor, while Iran wants to maintain it at all costs. This conflict is taking both the countries towards conflict again.
The US started the war in February this year with the goal of overthrowing the Islamic Republic of Iran regime or forcing it to accept an American decree that would end its nuclear program and regional dominance. But, the outcome of the war was contrary to America’s expectations. This war gave Iran a major strategic victory, that was control over the Strait of Hormuz. This was such a blow to America that it was forced to sign an MoU with Iran.
Iran’s doubt on the agreement and American move
Iran’s top leaders suspected from the beginning that this agreement was a temporary diplomatic withdrawal of America. They felt that America was using it to reduce the pressure on the global economy and to prepare for the next phase of the war. This suspicion of Iran became stronger when US Vice President JD Vance publicly said that President Donald Trump liked this agreement because it would give America time to replenish its dwindling strategic oil reserves.
- Iran also had many strong evidences to prove its suspicions correct.
- Iran’s seized properties were not restored.
- Iran’s demands for a ceasefire were completely ignored in the agreement between Israel and Lebanon brokered by America.
- The accumulation of American military assets and weapons started increasing in the Gulf region.
Most importantly, America instigated commercial ships to disobey the instructions of Iranian authorities while passing through Hormuz. As a result, some ships started passing close to the coast of Oman. America felt that this would weaken Iran’s hold and its claim on Hormuz.
Iran’s largest Brahmastra Hormuz
These steps of America tried to weaken Iran’s advance. The current rulers of Iran believe that if they remain silent, America will increase the pressure on them. The only way to stop the US and force a concrete nuclear and economic agreement is to go on the offensive. Iran cannot compromise on its control over the Strait of Hormuz at any cost, because this is its biggest strength in any future negotiations.
America’s counterattack
The huge crowd that gathered at the funeral of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei last week also convinced the Iranian leadership that the people of the country stand with their aggressive stance on the issue of Hormuz. Hormuz has now become a nationalist issue in Iran.
On the basis of this support, Iran attacked two oil tankers near the coast of Oman to foil American plans. In response to this show of power by Iran, America started an aggressive bombing campaign.
Iran’s masterplan
The surprising thing is that Iran was already prepared for war. It started sooner than expected, but Tehran is seeing its own advantage in it. Iran believes that if war has to happen, it should happen before the US is fully organized and the global economy recovers from the supply-chain shock. Now Iran’s strategy is clear…
- It will withstand American military pressure and intensify its attacks on American military bases in the Gulf.
- He is ready to tolerate the huge economic crisis caused by the American naval blockade.
- Iran is confident that by closing the Strait of Hormuz as well as Bab al-Mandeb and the Red Sea, it will put such a huge pressure on the global economy that Donald Trump will be forced to step back and come to the negotiating table.
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