The world has certainly heaved a sigh of relief with the historic peace agreement (MoU) between America and Iran and the decision to open the Strait of Hormuz, but real peace in the Middle East is still far away. The ‘test period’ of the next 60 days may prove to be the most dangerous time of this century. During this period, the possibility of direct military conflict between Israel and Iran has emerged as the biggest challenge.
The eyes of all the countries of the world are fixed on the peace agreement. Why is the increased tension in the Middle East affecting other countries too? Many countries including Pakistan are continuously trying to end this war and reach a compromise. A temporary framework has been prepared under the US-Iran agreement.
Temporary Framework of Agreement
Immediate ceasefire: Military actions on all fronts, including Lebanon, will be stopped immediately.
Path to Hormuz cleared: The Strait of Hormuz will be opened to international ships without any toll or blockade. In return the US Navy will also lift its siege.
Last round of nuclear talks: Within the next 60 days, final approval is to be given on very complex issues like Iran’s nuclear program, disposal of Highly Enriched Uranium, international inspections and relaxation of sanctions.
However, 60 days is a very short time to resolve such complex disputes. During this period, even a single major violation by either side can turn the entire ceasefire into ruins.
Opposition to Israel and fear of ‘false flag’
Opposition to Israel and fear of ‘false flag’ Israel remains the biggest ‘X-factor’ in this entire Mahadeal. Israel is not a part of this agreement and is considering it as a ‘Bitter Pill’ for itself. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made it clear that his country is not bound to accept any agreement that compromises its security.
Trump’s strong displeasure
US President Donald Trump has been enraged by the recent attacks by Israel on South Beirut. Trump described Netanyahu as a ‘very difficult man’ and said that this attack should not have happened. He has also reprimanded Netanyahu several times on the phone. Despite this, it does not seem to have any effect on Netanyahu.
suspicion of conspiracy
There are speculations that the Israeli government may launch a major campaign against Hezbollah or resort to a ‘false flag operation’ (conspiratorial attack) to derail this deal.
America’s changing stance
Here, President Donald Trump has given clear indications that Washington will no longer blindly support every arbitrariness of Israel. Trump has clearly said that if Israel damages the deal, it will have to face serious consequences.
5 biggest threats of the next 60 days
Direct Israel-Iran confrontation: If Israel targeted Iran’s nuclear sites or Iran continued supplying weapons to Hezbollah through the backdoor, then a direct war would break out between the two countries.
Lebanon’s gunpowder: The agreement talks about peace on the Lebanon front, but Israel wants to see Hezbollah completely disarmed. A small spark here can become a big fire.
Pressure from Iran’s fundamentalists: Iran’s hardliners in Tehran are calling this deal a ‘kneeling’ before America. If domestic pressure increases, Iran may withdraw from the agreement.
Failure of nuclear talks: If no agreement is reached on the elimination of uranium in 60 days, America can again threaten military action (Ultimate Alternative).
Regional Proxy Organization: Yemen’s Houthis and Iraq-Syria’s Shia fighters can break this peace at any time with their independent actions.
This agreement is certainly a historic diplomatic success towards restoring peace in the Middle East, but the real test is in the next two months. The proposed official signing to be held in Switzerland on June 19 and subsequent events will decide whether the world will enter a new era of peace or the Middle East will once again sit on a pile of gunpowder.
Leave a Reply