Amid preparations for the 2027 assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) chief Asaduddin Owaisi will formally launch his party’s 2027 assembly elections by holding a public meeting in Matera, Bahraich on Sunday. This rally is not just a program, but is being seen as a preparation for the AIMIM assembly elections in UP. Choosing Matera assembly seat is strategically important. This area is an area with a sizeable population of Muslims, Yadavs, backward classes and Dalit voters, where the Samajwadi Party has been continuously dominating since 2012. Here Yasar Shah and his wife Maria Shah have been MLAs on SP ticket.
Will convert dissatisfaction into votes
AIMIM state president Shaukat Ali says that the party alone is in a position to field candidates on about 200 seats in 2027. He also hinted at a possible alliance with BSP. He argues that the combined base of Muslim and Dalit votes can become a big challenge for both SP and BJP. Along with the Matera rally, Owaisi will also visit the Dargah of Syed Salar Masood Ghazi and give the message of connecting with the cultural-religious sentiments of the Muslim society. The party alleges that the parties that depended on Muslim votes for decades could not do anything concrete for the socio-economic upliftment of the community. Basic facilities are still missing in areas like Matera.
SP leader Yasar Shah claims that Muslim voters have now become very aware. Not going to fall into anyone’s trap. They know that AIMIM worked for BJP, opposition votes were divided there and BJP benefited. Well, AIMIM is an example of this in the 2022 elections. Where the public did not give even a single seat.
Got enthusiasm from Bihar-Maharashtra, but UP is different
Owaisi’s success in Bihar’s Seemanchal and Maharashtra’s local body elections has boosted his confidence. However, political analyst Rajendra Kumar does not consider it directly applicable to UP. He said that the social structure of Bihar and Maharashtra is different from that of UP. The voters of UP cast their votes considering the probability of the winner in the assembly elections, hence the path is difficult for small parties.
What do the statistics say?
AIMIM’s UP Assembly record has been weak so far. In 2017, after fighting on 38 seats, deposits were forfeited on 37 seats. Despite fighting on about 100 seats in 2022, the vote share was only 0.43%. But, the party performed better in the local body elections, winning 29 seats in 2017 and five municipal council seats in 2023.
The most talked about is the AIMIM-BSP alliance. If Muslim and Dalit votes unite then the equation can change on many seats. There is also speculation about a possible coordination with Chandrashekhar Azad’s Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram). However, Mayawati has been very cautious about alliances. Owaisi’s strategy is now spreading to the traditional strongholds of SP. AIMIM has increased its activity through e-rickshaw campaign in Etawah and is preparing to field candidates on seats like Etawah Sadar, Bharthana, Jaswantnagar.
What is the target of AIMIM?
Professor Pawan Dixit of Central University believes that the immediate goal of AIMIM is not to form the government, but to create a permanent political base in UP. If the party achieves 3-5% vote share and plays a decisive role in Muslim dominated seats, the outcome of many close contests in the 2027 elections may change. Owaisi will put the most pressure on Samajwadi Party, which is trying to save its Muslim core vote bank.
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