Iran lost its most powerful leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on the very first day of the US-Israel war. His last journey ended on July 9 in Mashhad, Iran, about 3 months after his death. All the big faces of the Islamic Republic were present in this funeral, but the one face which was most wanted was missing. Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei not attending his own father’s funeral is a clear indication of a major change in Iranian politics and the turmoil going on behind the scenes.
Who was seen at the funeral and who was not?
Speaker of Iran’s parliament and chief negotiator in talks with the US Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, powerful Chief Justice Gholamhossein Mohseni AJEI and Ali Khamenei’s eldest son Mustafa Khamenei were present at Ali Khamenei’s funeral. Apart from this, Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) commander Ahmed Vahidi was also seen at the funeral, who was missing since the start of the war. The commander who held this post before Vahidi was also killed in the same air strike in which Ali Khamenei was killed.
But 56 year old Mujtaba Khamenei was nowhere to be seen. He was appointed Supreme Leader soon after his father’s death, but since then he has been communicating only through written statements. People are scanning his pictures on social media to get a glimpse of him, but no authentic picture or appearance of him has emerged.
Why is Mujtaba Khamenei missing?
According to Farzan Sabet, managing researcher of Geneva Graduate Institute, there could be two main reasons behind Mujtaba’s absence.
- Serious injury or deformity: There is speculation that Mujtaba has also been seriously injured in the air strike in which his father was killed and his face or body is injured to such an extent that he is not in a position to appear in public.
- Fear of being killed: There is a danger of being directly targeted by America and Israel. In such a situation, intelligence agencies are preventing them from becoming public, so that their location cannot be tracked.
Will the form of power change?
Experts believe that Mujtaba will prove to be a completely different kind of leader from his father Ali Khamenei and the father of Iran’s revolution, Ruhollah Khomeini. Jason Brodsky, policy director of the American think tank United Against Nuclear Iran, says that Mujtaba had to take the help of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) to get this post, due to which he is ‘heavily dependent’ on the army.
Brodsky says the balance of power between the Supreme Leader’s office and the IRGC has changed. Iran may be trying to show its strength and solidarity to the world, but Mujtaba’s disappearance shows that there is an atmosphere of fear and uncertainty behind the scenes, because not only Ali Khamenei but an entire generation of top officials have been killed in the war.
Will rule through institutions, not on institutions
According to Alex Vatanka, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, Mujtaba has neither the charisma of Khomeini nor the authority of his father, which Ali Khamenei took decades to build. Vatanka writes in Alan-Majalla outlet, Mujtaba will probably rule through those institutions instead of sitting on top of them.
Mujtaba’s acceptance among the public is also being underestimated. The Shah’s dynastic rule was overthrown in the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Now, after Ali Khamenei, his son’s accession to the throne reminds of the same dynasty which was rejected by the Iranian people.
potential power struggle
Farzan Sabet of the Geneva Graduate Institute has predicted a major power struggle. This conflict could happen between Mujtaba Khamenei and Ghalibaf. Ghalibaf has emerged as Iran’s most prominent public face since the war. However, it would be premature to completely dismiss Mujtaba. The concept of disappearance is not new in Shia-dominated Iran. The Shia community believes in the disappearance and return of the 12th Imam Mahdi. Experts say that if Mujtaba’s injuries heal and the security situation improves, he can come forward later and strengthen his hold among his loyalists.
What is IRGC?
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was established after the 1979 revolution. Its main objective is to protect the values of Islamic revolution beyond the borders of the country. Today IRGC is not only a military force, but it also has direct control over about 30-40% of Iran’s economy (telecom, construction, oil).
power of supreme leader
The post of Supreme Leader is at the top in the Constitution of Iran. He is the commander-in-chief of the country. He directly appoints the head of the judiciary, the head of the state media and the commanders of the IRGC. The Supreme Leader has more power than the President. The weakening of Mujtaba means that these unlimited powers are now practically shifting into the hands of IRGC generals.
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