This time the movement of south-west monsoon has slowed down considerably in the country. Usually, monsoon reaches Uttar Pradesh by June 20, but this time it has not advanced on time. Rain is weak in many places and heat is still intense in some areas. According to the Meteorological Department and recent reports, the rainfall in the country has been less than normal in June 2026, which may affect both agriculture and inflation. This time the pace of monsoon has slowed down due to many reasons. Western Disturbance i.e. the weather system coming from the west is more active and the wind system coming from the sea is weak, due to which the rain is not able to progress further.
According to India Meteorological Department (IMD), rainfall in the first part of June 2026 has been less by about 25% to 32%. This shortage is more in some states, especially in Central and North India. Apart from this, conditions like El Nino in the Pacific Ocean can also weaken the monsoon. For this reason the rain pattern is uneven. In some places there is too much rain, in others there is very little rain. Delay in monsoon is being seen in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and surrounding states. Usually, rain reaches UP between June 18-23, but this time there is a delay of 5 to 10 days. In the first part of June, rainfall in UP has been approximately 32% less than normal and in eastern UP this reduction is more than 50%. This is affecting farming because the most important time for sowing of Kharif crops is June-July.
Biggest impact on Kharif crops
Indian agriculture is highly dependent on monsoon. Especially Kharif season crops like paddy, pulses, maize, soybean, cotton and sugarcane need early rains. If rains come late, farmers stop sowing or delay it. This has a direct impact on production. Paddy is most affected because it requires more water. If the rains remain weak for a long time, paddy production may decrease, due to which rice may become expensive in the future. All these things are completely interconnected with each other. If the balance of one is disturbed, it is sure to affect the other.
Pressure on pulses and edible oils
Pulses are also affected by lack of rain. Pulses like arhar, urad and moong are the main Kharif crops. Their production may decrease due to less rainfall. India is already dependent on other countries for many pulses. In such a situation, if production decreases, imports will increase and the effect of foreign market prices will be visible in India also. Similarly, soybean and other oilseed crops may be affected, due to which edible oils may also become expensive.
Talking about domestic production, our production is 240 to 260 lakh tonnes and the annual demand is around 300 lakh tonnes. That means there is a need to import 40 to 60 lakh tonnes of pulses annually. But on CNBC Awaaz, AFTA General Secretary Sunil Baldeva said that India had imported a little more peas last year, so if this time the total import of pulses is near 20-25 lakh metric tons then the work will be done. But the thing remains that all these data are from the time when the monsoon was fine. The rains were fine, but this time when the monsoon will reverse, the production may reduce. How much it will reduce will be known in future. But the market will definitely take this sentiment in its own way. There may be fluctuations in prices.
Impact on sugarcane and sugar prices
Sugarcane is a crop which requires a lot of water. If there is less rainfall in big states like Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, sugarcane production may decrease. Less sugarcane means that
- decrease in sugar production
- sweets become expensive
- Increase in cost of biscuits, cold drinks and packaged food
Prices of vegetables and fruits may also increase
Less rain and more heat do not affect only grains. Tomato, onion, potato and green vegetables are perishable crops. If it does not rain on time, the supply system becomes weak and the prices of vegetables can increase rapidly in the market. It has been seen earlier also that due to delay in monsoon the prices of tomatoes and onions suddenly increase.
Impact on milk and dairy sector
Due to less rainfall, there may be shortage of green fodder for animals. This may reduce milk production. This has the effect that
- Milk can be expensive
- Prices of curd and ghee may increase
- Pressure on rural income may increase
This effect appears a little late, but lasts for a long time.
Why does inflation increase?
In India, food items play a major role in inflation (CPI). When grains, vegetables, milk and pulses become expensive, overall inflation increases. The effect of weak monsoon does not only affect the farmers, but also affects the economy of the entire country. The income of rural people decreases and their purchasing power in the market decreases.
Is the situation very serious?
Right now many experts say that there is no need to panic. Monsoon has not stopped completely, it has just slowed down. There is a possibility of increase in rain in the beginning of July. If there is good rain in July then Kharif crops can be recovered to a great extent. The irrigation system and grain stock in the country is also better than before, due to which the situation can be handled. At the moment it is not a complete crisis, but it is definitely a warning. The rains in the coming few weeks will decide whether inflation will increase or there will be relief.
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