Jamiat Ulema-e-Hind President Maulana Arshad Madani said in the ‘Hindu-Muslim Unity Conference’ organized in Lucknow that “Islam is a religion of love and that is why today it is spreading fastest in the whole world. This statement of Maulana Madani once again gives fuel to the debate as to at what speed the Muslim population is increasing in India and the world and what are the real reasons behind it? Come. Let us understand this in detail through data from Census, NFHS and global research institutes.
According to American think-tank Pew Research Center, Islam is currently the fastest growing religion in the world. Between 2010 and 2020, the Muslim population worldwide increased by about 35 crores, while during the same period the Christian population increased by only about 12 crores. According to Pew’s 2015 estimate, while the world’s total population will increase by 35% between 2010 and 2050, the Muslim population will increase by about 73%. According to this, by 2050 there will be about 2.8 billion Muslims in the world, i.e. about 30% of the total global population, which will be almost equal to Christians (about 31%).
Muslim population in India
- The most recent census data available in India is from 2011. According to them, the total population of India was about 121 crores which has now become 140 crores. In 2011 data, Hindu population was 79.8% (about 96.6 crore) and Muslim population was 14.2% (about 17.2 crore).
- In the 1951 census, the share of Muslim population was only 9.8%, which increased to 14.2% by 2011.
- Between 2001 and 2011, the Muslim population increased by 24.6%, while the Hindu population increased by 16.8% during the same period. That is, the growth rate of Muslim population was higher than that of Hindus, but the growth rate of both the communities is decreasing as compared to the last decades.
- If seen state-wise, Lakshadweep and Jammu and Kashmir have the highest share of Muslim population, while Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Bihar have the highest number of Muslim population (not percentage, but total number). In states like Mizoram and Sikkim the Muslim population is less than 2%.
What does the data say about fertility rate?
To understand the real reason for population growth, it is important to look at the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) i.e. the average number of children per woman. According to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5, 2019-21), India’s national average TFR has now come down to 2.0, which is below the replacement level (2.1). That means the population of the country is now moving in the direction of stabilization. Three decades ago, in 1992, the TFR of Hindus was around 3.3 and the TFR of Muslims was around 4.4. That is, at that time the difference in fertility between the two communities was 1.1 children per woman. In the three decades that followed, the average number of children in both communities continued to decline. According to the health survey, now the TFR of Hindus has come down to 1.94 and the TFR of Muslims has come down to 2.36.
The special thing is that this decline in the Muslim community happened at a faster pace than that of the Hindus. Between 1992 and 2019-21, Muslim TFR declined by about 46%, while Hindu TFR declined by about 41%. This is the reason why the fertility gap between the two communities continued to shrink. According to the research, the gap of 1.1 in 1992 reduced to just 0.42 by 2019-21. Researchers estimate that if the current trend continues, Hindu and Muslim fertility rates may be equal by around 2030. Researchers consider improvement in the level of education, women’s literacy, urbanization, better access to health facilities and the effect of family planning programs to be the main reasons behind this decline and not religious reasons.
What is the forecast for the future?
According to Pew Research Center’s 2021 estimates, the share of Muslims in India’s population in 2020 was about 15%. It is expected to increase to around 18% by 2050, while the share of Hindus will come down to around 77%. In terms of numbers, there will be around 311 million Muslims in India by 2050, which will make India the country with the largest Muslim population in the world, surpassing Indonesia. However, India will still remain a Hindu-majority country, because the number of Hindus is estimated to be around 130 crores.
What does the Sachar Committee report say?
The Sachar Committee report of 2006 also estimates that depending on different scenarios, the share of Muslim population will gradually stabilize and be limited to 18-21% of the total population by 2101. According to the Sachar Committee report, between 1961 and 2001, the share of Muslim population increased from 10.7% to 13.4%, during which the annual growth rate of Muslim population (2.70%) was higher than that of Hindus (2.04%). However, the report also shows that between 1991-2001, like all communities, the growth rate of the Muslim population had also started a declining trend. Another important thing that comes out in the report is that according to the 2001 census, the share of children and youth (0-19 age group) in the Muslim population was much higher than the national average. In the language of demography, this is called “Population Momentum”, that is, even if the fertility rate is falling, due to the large youth population, the total number of Muslim population will continue to increase for the next few decades, even if its pace continues to slow down.
Overall, data shows that the growth rate of Muslim population in India is still slightly higher than that of Hindus, but this gap is continuously shrinking and this shrinkage is the result of education, health and socio-economic changes rather than religious “propaganda” or changes in belief, as demographers and researchers believe. As far as Maulana Madani’s statement “Islam is a religion of love and that is why it is spreading rapidly” is seen in the mirror of data, the fertility rate, average age and socio-economic factors seem to play a greater role in population growth than religious faith. This pattern applies not only to the growth of Muslim population in India but all over the world.
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