Earthquake Prediction: 40 thousand deaths due to earthquake every year, why geologists are not able to predict it accurately

Earthquake Prediction: The powerful 7.5 magnitude earthquake in Venezuela once again reminded the world that even modern science sometimes appears helpless in front of nature. Within seconds, buildings turned into debris, people started running on the streets and the threat of a tsunami loomed on the beaches. According to reports, two earthquakes of magnitude 7.2 and 7.5 occurred in Venezuela at an interval of just a few seconds, which scientists are calling ‘double earthquake’. This incident has attracted the attention of geologists not only in South America but all over the world.

The biggest question is that when humans reached Mars, developed things like Artificial Intelligence (AI), started predicting the weather accurately many days in advance, then why can’t the time, place and intensity of an earthquake be predicted in advance? This question is also important because according to the World Health Organization and various scientific studies, earthquakes have contributed the most to deaths due to natural disasters. Every year thousands of people around the world lose their lives due to earthquakes. Scientists can identify earthquake-prone areas, but cannot predict exactly when the next major earthquake will occur.

After all, why do earthquakes occur?

First of all, let’s start with the basics so we know why earthquakes occur. Actually, the earth’s surface is made up of many huge tectonic plates. These plates keep moving very slowly. When the tension between two plates increases and the rocks are unable to bear that pressure, then suddenly energy is released. Due to this energy the earth trembles and earthquake occurs. Its intensity can be fast or slow, which sometimes seems minor and sometimes becomes a big crisis.

• There are seven major and several minor tectonic plates on Earth.
• Stress is created when the plates collide, slide or separate.
• The stress accumulated over years can be released in a few seconds.
• This energy spreads in the form of seismic waves.

Why are scientists unable to accurately predict earthquakes?

Amidst all this, a big question arises in the modern era that when technology has advanced so much, then why earthquakes are not predicted accurately in advance. Let us know the answer to this. To predict an earthquake, it is considered necessary to tell three things, the first of which is when the earthquake will occur, where it will occur and what will be the intensity of that earthquake. The problem is that till date no scientific organization has been able to give a simultaneous and accurate answer to these three questions. Even the US Geological Survey (USGS) clearly states that no major earthquake has been predicted accurately till date. Because it is said that there are still many such factors under the earth, which are not known.

Are there no signs before an earthquake?

For decades, scientists have been looking for signs that appear before a major earthquake. But, still, some possible signs have been mentioned in the study conducted on earthquake, which are increase in the amount of radon gas in underground water, change in the behavior of animals, change in the magnetic field of the ground, formation of micro cracks, increasing number of small tremors. But, the problem is that these signs are not visible before every earthquake and sometimes they are visible even without an earthquake. Therefore these cannot be considered reliable warnings.

Why is technology not able to help?

Scientifically speaking, considering the complexity of the inner workings of the earth, it is not possible to predict earthquakes. In recent years, scientists have tried to predict earthquakes using artificial intelligence and machine learning. But, during this period scientists have had to face many big challenges. Because of which AI can currently only estimate the risk and not make accurate predictions.

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These challenges include-

• There is no complete information about what is happening inside the earth.
• It is difficult to measure the actual condition of rocks thousands of kilometers below.
• Historical data is limited and incomplete.
• The initial process of small and big earthquakes is almost the same.

Why did Venezuela’s earthquake become a topic of discussion?

On June 24, 2026, an earthquake of 7.2 magnitude and then 7.5 magnitude earthquake occurred in Venezuela after about 39 seconds. According to experts, this was a rare ‘double earthquake’, in which two major earthquakes occur almost simultaneously. Many buildings collapsed and a tsunami warning was also issued for some time. The capital Caracas was most affected by the earthquake. The US Geological Survey (USGS) has warned that 10 thousand to 1 lakh people may die in this disaster.