The step taken by India to suspend the Indus Water Treaty in May 2025, its impact is now clearly visible in the fields, canals and reservoirs of Pakistan. Pakistan’s Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS), which is considered the world’s largest interconnected irrigation system, is now going through a deep crisis. This vast network of three major reservoirs, six barrages and twelve inter-river link canals irrigates about 35 million acres of land and is the basis of more than 90 percent of the country’s food production. The water crisis is worsening day by day.
Carrying an average annual flow of 25 million acre-feet (MAF) into the Marala, it irrigates about 10 million acres of land through the Marala, Khanki, Kadirabad, Trimmu and Punjnad barrages. These command areas are among the most productive agricultural areas of Pakistan, contributing significantly to the national production of wheat, rice, sugarcane and other strategic crops and supporting millions of rural livelihoods. But the effect of water shortage may be clearly visible in the coming days. If rice and wheat crops are affected, inflation in the country may increase further.
Water level is continuously decreasing
According to reports, the IBIS’s main Marala Barrage, where the average annual flow of Chenab river is 25 million acre-feet, has reduced the water flow to just 1500 cusecs this year, whereas on normal days it should have been around 34 thousand cusecs. However, there is no fixed estimate of cusec, it changes with time. If we look at it accordingly, the flow has declined by about 95 percent. This is directly affecting crops like wheat, rice and sugarcane, on which Pakistan’s food security and the livelihood of millions of farmers depend. This more than sixty years old treaty has been counted among the most stable water-sharing arrangements till now, but this step of India has created uncertainty in the entire region.
Loss to Pakistan due to Indus Water Treaty
indus water treaty It was signed between India and Pakistan in 1960 and since then it has remained the basis of water sharing between the two countries. This treaty helped Pakistan in planning the future of its irrigation system, because there was certainty about the flow of water. Pakistan’s hydropower generation, agriculture and economic development have largely depended on uninterrupted and predictable water flow from western rivers. This treaty has also been considered an important link in maintaining strategic stability in South Asia.
In May 2025, India unilaterally announced to suspend this treaty. The strategic consequences of this decision are very serious for Pakistan. India has stopped sharing hydrological data of western rivers with Pakistan’s Indus Water Commissionerate despite data-sharing terms stipulated under the treaty. The consequences of this were clearly visible in the flood season of 2025, when lack of timely data had a negative impact on Pakistan’s flood forecasting and emergency preparedness. This increased the threat to people’s lives, infrastructure and livelihood.
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