All eyes will be on the monsoon session of Parliament starting from Monday, July 20, in which it is expected that the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will pass some important laws including the proposed Constitutional (131st Amendment) Bill related to delimitation. Meanwhile, the opposition INDIA block will try to maintain unity among its allies and prevent further defection. Although the government has not yet revealed its agenda, it is expected that delimitation bill Will bring it again, in which it is proposed to increase the number of Lok Sabha seats from 543 to about 850.
This law is also expected to pave the way for implementing 33 percent reservation for women by the 2029 Lok Sabha elections. The NDA is working to garner the required two-thirds majority to pass the constitutional amendment bill amid signs of support from some quarters.
How will NDA achieve two-third majority?
There is speculation that NCP (SP) MPs led by Sharad Pawar can play an important role in this. However, party’s working president Supriya Sule has said that no decision has been taken. He said that if the delimitation process leads to a similar 50 percent increase in Lok Sabha seats in all states, then there would be no special reason to oppose it.
Growing support for NDA: NDA’s position has strengthened after 20 Trinamool Congress MPs and six Shiv Sena (UBT) MPs supported the BJP-led alliance. In South India, the DMK, which has 22 Lok Sabha and eight Rajya Sabha MPs, has hinted at moving away from the Congress and the India Bloc.
Tension has increased further in Tamil Nadu after Congress decided to support actor-turned-politician C Joseph Vijay. The changing equation has given rise to speculation that the DMK may either abstain from voting or support the NDA on important laws, depending on the issues.
What is the mathematics of Lok Sabha?
To pass the Constitution Bill, the NDA will need to secure a two-thirds majority in both houses, making parliamentary arithmetic crucial. With 540 members in the Lok Sabha, the government will need 360 votes to secure the required majority. NDA currently has 292 MPs, due to which it is getting 68 less.
One possible route is to secure support from parties or MPs outside the coalition. If 20 Trinamool Congress rebels, six Shiv Sena (UBT) rebels, 22 DMK MPs and eight Sharad Pawar-led NCP (SP) support the bill, the NDA’s strength will reach 348. Even then, it will fall 12 votes short, forcing it to seek support from smaller parties and independents like YSRCP (4), JMM (3), VCK (2), RLP (1) and Shiromani Akali Dal (1).
If Trinamool rebels, DMK, Shiv Sena (UBT) rebels and NCP (SP) members abstain from voting, the effective strength of the House will come down to 484, bringing the two-thirds requirement to 323. Even in that scenario, the NDA is 31 votes short of its current tally of 292.
What is the challenge in Rajya Sabha?
The challenge in the Rajya Sabha upper house is equally important. With the current strength of 242 members, the NDA has around 150 MPs, while 162 votes are required to pass the constitutional amendment. If the NDA gets the support of eight DMK MPs and the lone Rajya Sabha member from the NCP (SP), its tally will increase to 159.
Three BJP supported candidates Sushmita Dev, Sukhendu Shekhar Rai and Prakash Chik Baraik have won through West Bengal by-elections. With his victory, the effective strength of the House increased, taking the majority figure to 164.
If DMK and NCP (SP) members do not vote, the required majority will fall short, but NDA will still be left with many votes, making support from parties like YSRCP (7), BJD (5), BRS (3) or BSP (1) vital. With the monsoon session approaching, the fate of the bill will probably depend on support from different parties, abstentions and last-minute political changes.
What happened during the voting in April?
After mentioning the possible situations, it is also important to take a look at the previous attempt in April. The government had introduced the delimitation bill in the last session, but it failed to get the required special majority after falling behind by 54 votes. The voting pattern at that time was:
Total MPs who voted: 528.
Votes in favor: 298
Votes against: 230
Two-thirds majority required: 352 votes
Congress’s opposition, NDA’s hope
Congress leader Jairam Ramesh on Thursday said that if the delimitation bill is re-introduced in the monsoon session, the party will strongly oppose it. He alleged that the Center was trying to garner support for a bill which had failed to get the required two-thirds majority in April.
Meanwhile, Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut said the opposition parties will oppose the proposed delimitation bill, but if the government includes their suggested amendment, they will sit together and think over it. Union Minister Ramdas Athawale has expressed confidence that the Women’s Reservation Bill and Delimitation Bill will be passed in the coming session. He said that in the last Parliament session the Constitution Amendment Bill was defeated by Congress, Samajwadi Party and TMC.
All party meeting on 19th July
The Center has called an all-party meeting on July 19 before the monsoon session. It is expected that the government will brief the opposition parties and other political parties about its legislative agenda and the bills to be introduced during the session. The monsoon session of Parliament will begin on July 20, followed by the NDA parliamentary party meeting on July 21, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to address the alliance’s MPs.
Read this also- Government’s bets and opposition’s preparations for meeting before monsoon session Politics
Leave a Reply