Since May 8, the rupee was continuously losing money against the dollar. There is a continuous decline in the rupee. From May 8 to May 20, the rupee had fallen by Rs 3.35 against the dollar. Everyone was assuming that first 97, then 98 and then within a few weeks the level of 100 would be crossed. But the dollar’s pride was yet to be broken. On Thursday, the situation changed in the currency market in such a way that everyone was left watching.
The rupee showed such strength against the dollar that by the time the market closed, a rise of 0.50 per cent was seen and the rupee was seen reaching the level of 96 against the dollar. Experts say that the way Trump’s statement has come and there are indications from RBI about increasing interest rates. Due to this, improvement in rupee has been seen. Let us also tell you how the rupee has shattered the pride of the dollar in the currency market.
Tremendous rise in rupee
On Thursday, the rupee improved 49 paise from its lowest ever close to close at 96.37 against the US dollar after crude oil prices came down from high levels amid signs of easing of geopolitical tensions and possible intervention by the Central Bank. Forex traders said that the rupee has strengthened after recent geopolitical developments.
But investors are still assessing geopolitical risks and sensitivity to oil prices in the background. Forex traders said that the one-year forward market rate for the rupee touched the important level of 100/USD on Wednesday. This indicates that currency markets are pricing in the possibility of weakness in the USD/INR pair over the next 12 months.
At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 96.25 against the dollar, then touched an early high of 96.05 and a low of 96.60 in intraday trade. At the end of Thursday’s trading session, the rupee was at 96.37, 49 paise higher than its previous closing price. On Wednesday, the rupee had hit a record low of 96.95 and later closed at 96.86, which was also a new low closing price. The special thing is that from May 8 till May 20, the rupee was continuously falling. If we look at the figures, there was a fall of Rs 3.35 in the rupee during this period.
Will the rupee become stronger?
HDFC Securities Research Analyst Dilip Parmar said that this improvement has come after the initial signs of easing of geopolitical tensions and the fall in crude oil prices amid active intervention of the Central Bank. Going forward, investors’ focus will remain on geopolitical developments and the upcoming monetary policy review of RBI. Parmar further said that from a technical perspective, spot USDINR is finding strong support at 95.74, while immediate resistance is capped at 96.50.
Rupee fell by more than 6 percent this year
Meanwhile, the dollar index, which measures the dollar’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading 0.22 per cent higher at 99.30. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading 0.75 percent lower at USD 104.23 per barrel in futures trade. A report prepared by DBS Bank Senior Economist Radhika Rao and Senior FX Strategist Philip Wei said that the rupee is weakening rapidly and dramatically.
It has fallen by more than 6 percent against the dollar in CY26 and is continuously touching new record lows. The report further said, “We have raised our USD/INR estimates to the range of 95-100 for the rest of 2026. On the domestic equity market side, the Sensex closed 135.03 points lower at 75,183.36, while the Nifty closed unchanged at 23,654.70. According to exchange data, on Wednesday, foreign institutional investors (on a net basis At) shares worth Rs 1,597.35 crore were sold.
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