The monsoon session of Parliament is to begin from July 20. In this the government is trying to pass the delimitation bill. The bill will come in Parliament later but the addition and subtraction of numbers has already started. Meanwhile, NCP (SP) MP Supriya Sule’s signal has made the numbers game of Parliament more interesting. Supriya has indicated that her party wants clarity on two issues from the government for support on the delimitation bill. The question of increasing the number of Lok Sabha seats and the limit of 50 percent reservation, if the government is ready to discuss these issues, then NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) can consider supporting the delimitation bill.
A statement by Supriya has added a new angle to this entire political mathematics. The bill has not even come yet but the conditions of support have already been revealed. Let us tell you that the government is trying to pass the 130th and 131st Constitutional Amendment Bill in the monsoon session, but two-thirds majority is required for constitutional amendment. This is where the number game of 36 votes begins. NDA has 324 MPs in the Lok Sabha. 360 votes are required for two-thirds majority. That means the government faces the challenge of garnering 36 additional votes.
Lok Sabha numbers game
- Total effective number – 540
- Two-thirds majority – 360
- NDA- 324
- Government needs 36 additional votes
Government’s eye on many MPs from opposition camp
In view of this, the government is now eyeing many MPs from the opposition camp. In the opposition, Samajwadi Party has 37 MPs, RJD has 4 and NCP Sharadchandra Pawar has 8 MPs. According to sources, 3 MPs from JMM, 3 from Aam Aadmi Party and 2 from National Conference are also said to be in touch with the ruling party. That is, the numbers game is like this in Parliament, every MP is being accounted for and the value of every vote is being decided.
Along with gathering support, the government is also working on the option of abstaining from voting. 8 MPs of Sharad Pawar’s party are a big factor in this whole mathematics. If there is agreement on the formula of increasing the seats by 50 percent in all the states, then the possibility of change in the stand of NCP Sharadchandra Pawar is not being ruled out. If 8 MPs join the government, then NDA’s tally will increase from 324 to 332 but still 28 votes will be required.
DMK factor starts from here
That means the mathematics is still not complete and this is where the DMK factor starts. DMK has 22 MPs in the Lok Sabha and 8 in the Rajya Sabha. If DMK votes in support of the government, the government’s tally will reach 354. That means just 6 votes away from the majority of 360.
If DMK remains absent instead of supporting, the number of MPs present in the House will decrease and the majority figure will also come down. That means whether DMK supports it or keeps distance, its decision is important in both the situations. That is why it is being said that the key to delimitation is still in the hands of DMK.
Government’s numbers game in Rajya Sabha
- Two-third majority – 164
- Government has- 155
- After Bengal by-election – 158
- Need- support of 6 MPs
- Or 12 MPs abstain from voting
Government’s numbers game in Rajya Sabha is easier than in Lok Sabha
The government’s numbers game in Rajya Sabha appears to be easier than in Lok Sabha. After the by-elections on three seats in Bengal, the government’s strength will become 158. That means, for two-thirds majority, the support of only 6 MPs will be required. If 12 MPs abstain from voting then the mathematics may become easier for the government. DMK has 8 MPs in Rajya Sabha. This means that here too, if DMK supports or abstains, the government’s work can become easier.
Supriya Sule’s statement has added a new angle to the numbers game of delimitation. On the other hand, the ruling party is eyeing every possible number but the biggest challenge of the government is still to garner 36 votes in the Lok Sabha. DMK’s stance is the biggest factor in this entire game. This time the monsoon session is not just a session of constitutional amendment but also the biggest test of numbers game, burglary and political management.
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