Fertility rate is improving in southern states, shock to Bihar-UP, population started decreasing here

Now a new picture is emerging regarding population and birth rate in the country. The southern states, which were long considered examples of declining fertility and population control, are now registering a slight increase in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR). According to the National Family Health Survey-6 (NFHS-6), TFR has increased from 1.7 to 1.8 in Andhra Pradesh, from 1.7 to 1.8 in Karnataka and from 1.8 to 1.9 in Telangana. On the other hand, the birth rate is continuously decreasing in the country’s most populous states Bihar and Uttar Pradesh.

Bihar’s TFR has come down from 3.0 to 2.7 and Uttar Pradesh’s has come down from 2.4 to 2.2. According to the data presented in Parliament on July 24, 2026, the total fertility rate of the country remains at 2.0, which is below the replacement level (2.1). In such a situation, while in some states of the South, increasing fertility is being considered a positive sign amid concerns about future decline in working population and increasing elderly population, the rapidly decreasing birth rate in states like Bihar and UP points towards the changing population trend of the country. Let us understand these figures in detail.

Birth rate also decreased in Bihar-UP

According to the data presented in Parliament by the ministry, Bihar’s TFR was 3.0 in NFHS-5 (2019-21), which has reduced to 2.7 in NFHS-6. Similarly, TFR of Uttar Pradesh has come down from 2.4 to 2.2. That is, even in those states where population remained the main basis of the country’s population growth for a long time, the size of families is continuously getting smaller.

Already below replacement level in southern states

The birth rate in the states of South India is already below the replacement level. According to NFHS-6, TFR of Andhra Pradesh has been recorded at 1.8, Karnataka at 1.8 and Tamil Nadu at 1.7. In Telangana it is 1.9. TFR in Kerala also remains at 1.8.

Looking at these figures, there is discussion about increasing the population in these states amid fears of shortage of workers in the future, rapidly increasing elderly population and impact on economic growth. However, in the Health Ministry’s reply presented in Parliament, no specific policy has been mentioned for these states.

States and UTs with lowest and highest TFR

According to the data, the lowest TFR has been recorded in Andaman-Nicobar Islands (0.9) and Sikkim (1.0), while the highest TFR is in Bihar (2.7). After this comes Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand (both 2.2). TFR in Lakshadweep has increased from 1.4 in NFHS-5 to 2.2 in NFHS-6. However, it is worth noting that even though Bihar is at the forefront among all the states, there has been a decline in the fertility rate there too.

Top 10 states/UTs with highest TFR

Government’s stance

The government told the Parliament that its current focus is on healthy motherhood, healthy timing and spacing of pregnancies and strengthening family planning services. This is in line with the National Health Policy 2017 and Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 2030.

For this, programs like increasing the number of contraceptive means, post-delivery contraceptive facilities, providing contraceptives at every home through Asha workers and Mission Parivar Vikas are being run in 13 states Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Meghalaya, Tripura, Nagaland and Mizoram. These programs are reviewed through systems like Common Review Mission, National Program Coordination Committee and NFHS.

Advantages and disadvantages of fluctuating birth rates

Possible disadvantages of decreasing birth rate

• The working age population may decrease in the future, which may lead to a shortage of workers.
• The dependency ratio may worsen as the proportion of elderly population increases. This means that the number of dependent people on every earning person may increase.
• Pressure on pension, healthcare and social security schemes may increase.
• Economic growth may be affected in the long run, as both the number of consumers and the working population may decline.
• Political issues like delimitation of Lok Sabha seats may also be affected. leading in population control
• States have been feared to suffer losses in terms of representation.

Possible benefits of decreasing birth rate

• Availability of resources per person may improve, which increases the possibility of improvement in lifestyle.
• In small families, more expenditure and attention can be given to children’s education and health.
• Women’s participation in the workforce may increase and maternal health may improve.
• The pressure on the environment and the resources of cities is relatively less.

Possible benefits of higher birth rate

• There remains a large base of young and working population, which is called demographic dividend.
• Labor force remains available for a long time, due to which there is less impact on economic activities.

Possible disadvantages of high birth rate

• Pressure on resources, education and health services increases, especially when economic growth does not keep pace with population growth.
• Challenges related to poverty, unemployment and rapid urbanization may increase.

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