Climate change is becoming the world’s biggest problem. But due to war and conflict between many countries, this problem is not being given much attention. Especially political attention seems to be decreasing. The earth is continuously getting warmer. An assessment has revealed that the year 2025 was the third hottest year on record. The special thing is that this annual study named ‘Indicators of Global Climate Change’ (IGCC) has revealed that the contribution of human activities to the heat in 2025 was probably the highest till date.
The IGCC study, which was first published in 2023, is the work of an independent international group of climate scientists. This group includes many scientists contributing to the ‘Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’ (IPCC). IPCC prepares reports from time to time on the situation of climate change, and its reports are considered the most reliable.
Year 2025 will be the third hottest year
The latest IGCC study says that the average global temperature in 2025 will be about 1.39 degrees Celsius higher than the baseline average of 1850-1900. Of this total increase, 1.37 °C was attributable to human activities (particularly greenhouse gas emissions), while the remainder may be the result of natural changes in climate systems.
The IGCC study, published in the peer-reviewed open access journal ‘Earth System Science Data’, confirms earlier estimates by the World Metrological Organization (WMO). WMO had said in January this year that 2025 is likely to become the third hottest year after 2024 and 2023. Also, in 2025, the average global temperature is likely to rise by 1.44 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 baseline.
2024 was the hottest year
The year 2024 proved to be the hottest year ever. This year was about 1.55 degrees Celsius warmer than the baseline of 1850-1900. According to the IGCC study in 2024, the contribution of human activities that year was about 1.36 degrees Celsius, while the remaining change was due to natural causes. Similarly, the year 2023 had become warmer by about 1.45 degrees Celsius. Then the human contribution was estimated to be around 1.31 degrees Celsius.
Now the contribution of human activities to global warming by 2025 is probably the highest estimated so far, but natural changes in the weather have been different every year. Last year was a ‘La Nina’ year, and the Equatorial Pacific Ocean off the west coast of South America was much colder than normal.
Earth remained a little cool due to ‘La Nina’
It is believed that ‘La Nina’ generally has a cooling effect on the earth. Perhaps this could be the reason that despite the contribution of human-caused warming reaching a record level, this year remained slightly cooler than 2024 and 2023.
IGCC’s latest study said that due to record emissions of greenhouse gases, human-caused warming is increasing at the rate of about 0.27 degrees Celsius every decade. In the year 2025, greenhouse gas emissions will reach 56.8 billion tons of carbon dioxide, which is the highest level ever.
It also said that if the world wants to limit the temperature rise to within 1.5 degrees Celsius from the 1850-1900 baseline, it will have to emit no more than 130 billion tonnes of additional carbon dioxide by the beginning of 2026.
Brainstorming regarding climate in Germany
The IGCC study is being released in a week when most of the world’s countries are gathering in Bonn, Germany for the annual mid-year climate talks. The talks mainly focused on ways to increase the ambition of climate action, as the campaign suffered a major blow last year with the US withdrawal from the 2015 Paris Agreement. The special thing is that global climate action has not been able to keep pace with the need for drastic reductions in future greenhouse gas emissions.
The results of this study are another reminder of the rapidly increasing global temperature. Just last month, a WMO study said there was a 91 percent chance that at least one of the next five years between 2026 and 2030 would exceed the 1.5°C limit, just as it did in 2024. It also says that there is a 75% chance that the average temperature over this 5-year period will exceed the 1850-1900 baseline level by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Danger of heavy El Nino in 2026
Whereas this year a heavy El Nino is being predicted in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. The effect of El Nino is exactly the opposite of La Nina and generally it increases the earth’s temperature significantly. It is expected that this year’s El Nino will not only last till the end of the year, but may also last till the beginning of next year.
Meanwhile, a global commitment has been proposed in the ongoing climate meeting in Bonn, Germany to ensure that the share of electricity in the total energy consumption should be at least 35% by 2035. Currently, the contribution of electricity in global energy consumption is 20%. This is an important step towards moving from fossil fuels to other types of energy.
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