The 2027 assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh may still be far away, but the political chessboard has already started to be laid. Meanwhile, AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi has started a new debate by expressing his desire for alliance with Samajwadi Party. SP’s national general secretary Ram Gopal Yadav has also said that we will welcome whoever defeats the BJP. The question is whether Akhilesh Yadav will bring Owaisi with him? And why is the Muslim vote bank considered so important in UP? We will know the answers to all these questions in this report.
The countdown for assembly elections has started in Uttar Pradesh. While BJP is dreaming of returning to power for the third consecutive time, Samajwadi Party is busy preparing to form the government in 2027. In such an environment, small and regional parties are also trying to strengthen their political ground. In the same sequence, AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi, who reached Bahraich, has put the ball in Akhilesh Yadav’s court by expressing his desire for alliance with Samajwadi Party. Owaisi has said, ‘If anyone tries to stop BJP, I am ready to join them.’
AIMIM has not been able to do wonders in UP till now
This statement of Asaduddin Owaisi has come at a time when new strategies are being made regarding the role of Muslim votes in opposition politics. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Samajwadi Party and Congress alliance got huge support from Muslim voters, the direct benefit of which was visible in the seats. Now the question is whether SP would like to make AIMIM a partner in that vote bank? However, AIMIM’s UP Assembly record has been weak so far. In 2017, after fighting on 38 seats, deposits were forfeited on 37 seats. Despite fighting on about 100 seats in 2022, the vote share was only 0.43%. But, the party performed better in the local body elections.
Ram Gopal welcomed, but Akhilesh faced this problem
On the statement of Asaduddin Owaisi, National General Secretary of Samajwadi Party Ram Gopal Yadav has said that whoever defeats BJP is welcome, but political experts believe that the final decision has to be taken by Akhilesh Yadav only. SP’s biggest concern is that if Owaisi comes into the alliance, a positive message may be sent to one section, but on the other hand, the party’s strategy of broad social alliance may also be affected. Actually, BJP is trying to have elections on the issue of Hindutva, whereas SP wants the election issue to be PDA (Backward, Dalit, Forward or Minority). After coming together with Owaisi, BJP will easily corner Akhilesh.
SP does not need AIMIM for Muslim votes
Muslim vote bank is considered very important in Uttar Pradesh. The share of Muslim community in the total population of the state is considered to be around 19 percent, but in many districts and assembly seats this percentage reaches 30 to 50 percent. According to political analysts, Muslim voters are in a position to directly influence the election results in more than 120 assembly seats of the state. This is the reason why Samajwadi Party has been considering the Muslim-Yadav equation as its political strength for a long time. In such a situation, Akhilesh knows that he who will be able to defeat BJP will get the votes of Muslims. In this situation, at present SP is the only strong option in UP.
Alliance with RLD and Rajbhar’s party is a lesson for Akhilesh
There seems to be less enthusiasm within SP on Owaisi’s proposal. Party leaders believe that after the Lok Sabha elections, SP has emerged as the main opposition force in the state and now it wants to contest the elections on the basis of its organization and PDA (Backward, Dalit, Minority) equation. In such a situation, the leadership does not seem to be in favor of giving more political importance to smaller parties by distributing seats. The experience of previous alliances is also believed to be behind this thinking of SP. Within the party, examples are often given like Rashtriya Lok Dal and SubhaSP, which were with SP at different times but later moved to the BJP camp. For this reason, the SP leadership fears that small parties coming together for electoral gains may change their political path after the elections.
Less benefit and more risk of polarization
Political experts believe that the Muslim vote bank is already largely associated with SP, hence taking AIMIM along may bring less benefit and more risk of polarization. In such a situation, the final decision may be taken closer to the elections, but currently Akhilesh Yadav’s strategy seems to be to take SP forward by making it not the center of the alliance but the main axis. However, political analysts believe that if AIMIM and SP come together then the possibility of division of Muslim votes can be reduced, but along with this many difficult questions like seat distribution, leadership and local equations will also come to the fore.
Akhilesh considers it an opportunity or a political risk
Now everyone’s eyes are on Akhilesh Yadav. Will SP take AIMIM along or will it carry forward its alliance with Congress like in 2024? The answer to this will become clear in the coming months, but it is certain that the activism of political parties regarding the Muslim vote bank is going to increase before the 2027 elections. It is noteworthy that in the politics of UP, Muslim vote bank is not just an electoral figure but is considered a factor that decides victory or defeat on many seats. In such a situation, this offer of Owaisi has started a new debate within opposition politics. Now it has to be seen whether Akhilesh Yadav considers this proposal as an opportunity or a political risk.
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