These days, echoes of the ongoing turmoil in the opposition camp are being heard in the political corridors of the country. There are reports of internal strife in Trinamool Congress (TMC), while in Maharashtra, Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena is once again facing new challenges. In such a situation, it is natural to raise the question whether all this is just a coincidence or a normal political movement, or is there a deliberate strategy working behind it to achieve ‘two-thirds majority’ in the Parliament. After all, what thinking of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is working for the grand contest of 2029?
The top leadership of BJP is well aware that the electoral path of 2029 may be more difficult than that of 2024. This is the reason why the focus is being placed on the two biggest issues of the times to come – ‘Women’s Reservation’ and ‘Delimitation’.
The new delimitation of parliamentary constituencies is not only likely to increase the number of Lok Sabha seats, but may also bring about a major change in the entire structure of representation in terms of geography and population of the constituencies.
Benefit received in Jammu and Assam
Its initial experiments have already been seen in Jammu-Kashmir and Assam. After the process of delimitation in Jammu and Kashmir, 6 new assembly seats were added in Jammu division, due to which BJP got direct political benefit. At the same time, even after the delimitation of 2023 in Assam, the political equations were seen changing completely. It is now believed that BJP is eyeing those states where it faced the biggest political setback in the 2024 general elections, i.e. Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and West Bengal.
There are a total of 170 Lok Sabha seats in these three major states. In 2024, the NDA had to be satisfied with only 65 seats, while the opposition ‘India’ alliance got 105 seats. It is clear that a large part of the opposition’s strength comes from these states. That is why political analysts believe that the biggest impact of any future delimitation or political reshuffle can be seen on these states.
Apart from this, the 23 Lok Sabha seats of Bihar, Jharkhand, Haryana and Rajasthan, which BJP had failed to win last time, are also at the center of the strategy. However, the most essential condition for implementing this entire strategy is the magical figure of two-thirds majority in Parliament.
For decisive constitutional changes, the support of 360 MPs is required in the Lok Sabha, whereas in the Rajya Sabha this number should be 163. At present, NDA has 293 MPs in the lower house (Lok Sabha). It is being speculated that if about 20 MPs of Trinamool Congress and 6 MPs of Uddhav group take a new stand, then this figure of NDA can reach around 320. Despite this, there will still be a shortfall of about 40 MPs in the Lok Sabha for a two-thirds majority.
The figure may reach 154 in Rajya Sabha
If we talk about the Upper House (Rajya Sabha), then NDA currently has 148 members there. After Jharkhand, Mizoram and other possible changes, this number is expected to go up to 154, but even then there will be about 10 seats less than the two-thirds figure.
This is the main reason why Shiv Sena’s contradictions in Maharashtra, TMC’s stir in Bengal and the stance of other regional satraps are being closely monitored. There is also a strong discussion in the political circles that the ruling party of Tamil Nadu DMK and M.K. Stalin’s stance could prove to be very decisive in any major constitutional change in the future. DMK has 22 members in the Lok Sabha and 10 in the Rajya Sabha, which puts them in a strong position.
However, BJP is rejecting all these speculations and terming this turmoil of opposition parties as their purely ‘internal matter’. It is clear that this entire exercise is not limited to just gathering numbers. This is actually a big outline of the preparations for Mission 2029, new delimitations, women’s reservation and new political equations.
Is this rush to increase the numbers in Parliament to pave the way for some major and historic constitutional changes in the future? Is this political unrest spreading from Maharashtra to West Bengal a part of the same grand strategy? The answers to these Yaksha questions will become clear in the coming few months. But one thing is certain that the chessboard for the battle of 2029 has already started being laid.
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